The European Defence Market and Industry outlook to 2030
Trends, industrial shifts and emerging opportunities by country
Our 2030 forecasts for military spending and sales by the main manufacturers in Europe
A detailed benchmark of European countries, supplemented by 14 country profiles
A list of the top 20 European defence groups
Key data on the 200 leading companies in the sector in Europe
Numerous case studies to illustrate the challenges facing the sector
An operational format with 27 slides of insights and a detailed 180-page report
Access to the complete study database
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A strategic study to
Analyse market trends and outlook to 2030This study provides a comprehensive, quantified overview of trends in the European defence industry. Amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and deteriorating public finances in some countries, what are the real prospects for growth between now and 2030 ? And how is the industry adapting to the upheavals underway (drones, AI, mass production, the rise of start-ups) ?
Identify hight potential markets
Using an exclusive scoring system, Xerfi's experts have identified the most promising European countries for defence manufacturers. Based on around ten key indicators (size of DTIBs, future trends in defence budgets, availability and training of the workforce, etc.), the study analyses the strengths and weaknesses of the various national markets.
Decode the competitive landscape and its evolution
The report draws up a detailed map of the competition: positions, locations, identity cards for the leaders, and a list of the top 200 European defence companies. Who are the most successful players? What are their development strategies?
Detailed plan
Report scope and market overview
Europe has entered a new era of rearmament, triggering an unprecedented investment cycle for its defence industry. Threatened by Russia and facing the prospect of US disengagement, the continent is stunned by the return of war as a dominant force in global affairs. In response, most European countries are significantly increasing their defence budgets, with major spending hikes planned through 2030.
The European defence market reached €172 billion in turnover in 2023, and Europe is expected to represent 19% of global military spending in 2024. Germany, France, the UK and Italy account for over 60% of this figure.
The UK currently leads the European defence industry, powered by BAE Systems, the largest player by revenue. France follows with major firms such as Thales, Dassault and Naval Group. Germany, now the top spender with over €100 billion in additional defence funding, is quickly gaining ground. Rheinmetall, its flagship company, has doubled defence sales in three years to €7.6 billion.
To meet rising demand and global competition, European manufacturers must produce more, faster and cheaper—despite labour shortages. This shift doesn’t abandon innovation, but favours simpler, robust, and scalable equipment for mass deployment.
This marks a turning point for a sector historically built around complexity and small production runs. The push for standardisation, autonomy in procurement and industrial sovereignty is reshaping the future of the European defence industry.
In around thirty slides, the executive summary provides access to the study's conclusions on the market outlook market outlook to 2030, competitive dynamics and strategic challenges facing the sector
Xerfi's 2030 forecasts : global arms spending, military spending in Europe and sales growth of Europe's leading defence groups
The latest market figures for Europe : arms spending in Europe to 2024, trends in European imports and exports European imports and exports, weight of the United States in European imports, etc.
Market context and drivers : impact of the global geopolitical situation, EU funding plans and programmes EU funding plans and programmes, major armaments programmes underway, etc.
Massifying production and improving flexibility
- Case studies: setting up the defence industrial reserve in France | Putting the automotive industry to work for defence
Accelerating innovation in the European defence industry : focus on the growing role of start-ups
- Case studies : Helsing and AI for defence | ARX Robotics and land robots | Tekever and UAS drones
Developing lower-cost, more consumable equipment
- Case studies: the offensive by European companies in the kamikaze drone segment (remotely operated munitions, MTO)| Rheinmetall's investment in mass production of munitions
Developing European industrial cooperation
- Case studies: the Eurofighter consortium and the SCAF programme | The Leonardo Rheinmetall Military Vehicles (LRMV) joint venture | Analysis of cooperation financed by the European Defence Fund (EDF)
An exclusive ranking of the most attractive European countries/markets for the defence industry
Comparative mapping of European countries using more than ten economic and sectoral criteria
- Market potential: size and dynamics of national Defence Technological and Industrial Bases (DTIBs), levels of defence spending, projected trends in defence budgets, export performance, etc.
- Economic environment: GDP growth prospects, debt levels and public deficit, energy costs, corruption index
- Human capital: level of qualification of the population (higher education and technical training), availability of labour, labour productivity in relation to wages, etc.
Attractiveness ratings for the 14 main countries/markets : Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom.
The forces at work : rankings of the leading groups worldwide and in Europe, leaders by major market segment (air, land and naval)
Fact sheets on 10 key companies : Airbus, BAE Systems, Leonardo, Lockheed Martin, MBDA, Naval Group, Rheinmetall, Saab, Safran, Thales
The top 200 companies in Europe : location, sales, Ebitda, net profit
Companies covered
Tables and charts
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